Data-Driven Chance-Constrained Planning for Distributed Generation: A Partial Sampling Approach

Abstract

The planning of distributed energy resources has been challenged by the significant uncertainties and complexities of distribution systems. To ensure system reliability, one often employs chance-constrained programs to seek a highly likely feasible solution while minimizing certain costs. The traditional sample average approximation (SAA) is commonly used to represent uncertainties and reformulate a chance-constrained program into a deterministic optimization problem. However, the SAA introduces additional binary variables to indicate whether a scenario sample is satisfied and thus brings great computational complexity to the already challenging distributed energy resource planning problems. In this paper, we introduce a new paradigm, i.e., the partial sample average approximation (PSAA) using real data, to improve computational tractability. The innovation is that we sample only a part of the random parameters and introduce only continuous variables corresponding to the samples in the reformulation, which is a mixed-integer convex quadratic program. Our extensive experiments on the IEEE 33-Bus and 123-Bus systems show that the PSAA approach performs better than the SAA because the former provides better solutions in a shorter time in in-sample tests and provides better guaranteed probability for system reliability in out-of-sample tests. All the data used in the experiments are real data acquired from Pecan Street Inc. and ERCOT. More importantly, our proposed chance-constrained model and PSAA approach are general enough and can be applied to solve other valuable problems in power system planning and operations. Thus, this paper fits one of the journal scopes: <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">Distribution System Planning in Power System Planning and Implementation</i> .