Overview of Power System Planning under Uncertainty

Abstract

With the gradual increase of the proportion of renewable energy generation dominated by wind power and photovoltaic power and the change of load characteristics, the source-load uncertainty of power system will be one of the new power system characteristics with high proportion of new energy. Therefore, at this stage, the uncertainty method should be mainly used for power system planning. For the planning of power system under uncertain conditions, the uncertain variables that affect the planning of power system are first introduced, including new energy output and load forecasting, new factors of power system, investment cost, policy and environment. Then, the application of stochastic programming method in power system uncertainty planning is introduced, including the general scenario model of stochastic programming and the stochastic programming model of power system with opportunity constraints, and the probability prediction of uncertain variables in stochastic programming is introduced. Secondly, the application of power system robust optimization method in power system uncertain planning is introduced, including classical robust optimization method and distributed robust optimization method, and the interval prediction of uncertain variables in classical robust optimization method is introduced. Stochastic programming and classical robust optimization should study how to better describe the information of uncertain variables in the future. At present, the distributed robust optimization method should first solve the planning adaptability problem of high-proportion new energy power system. Finally, the future research on uncertain planning of power system is prospected.