Abstract
The article contains a thorough study of tourist flows in Ukraine during the last 18 years. The tendencies of the development of international tourism during the last 20 years and their influence on the development of tourism in Ukraine have been explored. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of inbound tourist flows. The negative dynamics of tourist arrivals in Ukraine led to the construction of a forecast model for the development of this component of tourism activity with the aim of an objective assessment of future tourist arrivals and the adoption of effective management decisions on improving the situation of tourism in Ukraine. Tourist destinations today are rigorously competing for consumer interest in tourism products. In view of this, tourist facilities operating in the tourist market place particular emphasis on the elements of tourism marketing (product, price, distribution, advertising, human capital, actual data, processes).Modern forecasting systems and methods have been used to build a forecast of tourism development in Ukraine and, in particular, arrivals of foreign tourists to Ukraine. An analytical forecasting model was built by the system of CurveExpert in the form of a polynomial function, analytical forecasting models were built by the system of computer algebra Maple in the form of piecewise linear and piecewise polynomial functions. Numerical prediction models in the MathCAD system using different types of spline-interpolation and predictive functions have been constructed. A comparative analysis of the results of forecasting in different systems was carried out. The results of the comparative analysis give confidence in the development of inbound tourism in Ukraine.
Highlights
Tourism is one of the most important forms of international cooperation, which provides many countries with major budget revenues and employment growth
Successful tourism business needs a brand that focuses on target markets, successfully generates potential customers and maintains their quality, satisfies the customers’ requirements, which is extremely important for Ukraine
The aim of the article is to research the development of tourism in Ukraine on the basis of analysis of tourist flows data, marketing, building of different types of the forecasting models of development and their comparative analysis
Summary
Tourism is one of the most important forms of international cooperation, which provides many countries with major budget revenues and employment growth. The most important reason for this is that and job creation (Lea, 1988; Sinclair, 1998) This it is one of the quickly developing sectors in the economic connection is pointing to growth in world. This has highlighted the contribution of the the leadership of tourism. Processing of large amount of statistical infor- scientific works of domestic and foreign erudites, mation assumes the use of modern methods and which cover the fundamental positions, the main algorithms of data analysis Application of such problems of tourism enterprises.
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