Das Potenzial der Strategischen Vorausschau zur Reduktion kognitiver Verzerrungen

Abstract

In order to secure a long-term competitive advantage in an increasingly complex world, information gathering, evaluation and exploitation is vital for uncovering future developments and dynamics in the corporate environment. The Strategic Foresight methods systematize the process of information processing, allowing a targeted look into the future. The benefits of such methods depend largely on the individuals who perform them. They may be subject to dysfunctional ways of thinking and behaving that evolves from mental models and the restricted ability of human information processing for coping with complexity and reflecting reality. On the one hand, the methods of Strategic Foresight contribute to the reduction of human dysfunctions, so called cognitive biases, by the approach design. On the other hand, the group composition of the employees involved and their degree of heterogeneity also have the potential to minimize biases. Applying approaches from cognitive science for human thinking in the field of Strategic Foresight outlines the contribution of foresight methods for reducing individual dysfunctions.