Abstract
Data on rainfall patterns only weakly corroborate the claim that climate change explainsthe Darfur conflict that began in 2003 and has claimed more than 200 000 lives anddisplaced more than two million persons. Rainfall in Darfur did not decline significantly inthe years prior to the eruption of major conflict in 2003; rainfall exhibited a flat trend inthe thirty years preceding the conflict (1972–2002). The rainfall evidence suggestsinstead a break around 1971. Rainfall is basically stationary over the pre- andpost-1971 sub-periods. The break is larger for the more northerly rainfall stations, andis less noticeable for En Nahud. Rainfall in Darfur did indeed decline, but thedecline happened over 30 years before the conflict erupted. Preliminary analysissuggests little merit to the proposition that a structural break several decades earlieris a reasonable predictor of the outbreak of large-scale civil conflict in Africa.
Published Version
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