DAMPAK PENURUNAN TARIF IMPOR GULA DAN KEBIJAKAN DOMESTIK TERHADAP INDUSTRI GULA DAN MOLASE INDONESIA

Abstract

ABSTRACTOne of the policies in the trade agreement is the elimination of import tariffs, this will have a negative impact on Indonesia which continues to experience an increase in sugar imports every year. Besides sugar, one of the products that can be produced from sugar cane is molasses, where molasses can be used as raw material for making ethanol. Indonesia's molasses trading pattern has different characteristics with sugar, Indonesia is one of the world's largest exporting countries with an increasing level of exports every year. This study aims to analyze the impact of the policy of reducing sugar import tariffs and domestic policies on the Indonesian sugar and molasses industry in the time series data range from 1995 to 2016. The study uses a simultaneous equation model consisting of 21 structural equations and 15 identity equations which are estimated using the Two method Stage Least Square (2SLS). The results showed that the policy of reducing sugar import tariffs would increase the total import of Indonesian sugar to increase the price of domestic sugar but did not affect the amount of export of Indonesian molasses. Domestic policy in the form of an increase in the area, the price of sugar at the farm level, the addition of the number of sugar factories will result in an increase in the production of sugar and molasses in Indonesia.