Damage prediction of transmission lines under typhoon disasters considering multi-effect

Abstract

Aim: It is necessary to study the resilience of transmission lines under typhoon disasters considering multi-effect, because typhoon disasters pose a great threat to coastal transmission lines and existing research ignored multi-effect and obtained conservative results. Method: This paper proposes a method to predict the damage of transmission towers under typhoon disasters considering the multi-effect of tower-line coupling, aging, corrosion, guy wire reinforcement, etc. The tower-line coupling effect uses a two-step reliability model. The first step calculates the damage probability of transmission lines. Then, we couple the wind load of transmission lines to towers through binomial distribution. The second step calculates the damage probability of transmission towers. The aging effect uses two-parameter Weibull distribution to calculate the aging failure probability. The corrosion effect uses the uniform corrosion theory to calculate the corrosion failure probability. The guy wire reinforcement is realized by increasing the mean value of design wind load for strength curves. Next, this paper uses probability addition equation to integrate multi-effect and obtained the final damage prediction results. Finally, we used the 110-kV THJ (TieHaiJia) line in Guangdong province, China under Typhoon “Mangkhut” in 2018 as an example to check the accuracy of proposed method. Results: The results show that the comprehensive failure probability is close to 1, and the reinforcement effect can only reduce the failure probability by 0.003. Conclusion: It is concluded that considering the tower-line coupling effect to improve failure probability is closer to practice, but the reinforcement effect should not be blindly improved.