Abstract
Under the typhoon disaster, the power grid often has serious accidents caused by falling power towers and breaking lines. It is of great significance to analyze and predict the damage probability of a transmission line-tower system for disaster prevention and reduction. However, some problems existing in current models, such as complicated calculation, few factors, and so on, affect the accuracy of the prediction. Therefore, a damage probability assessment method of a transmission line-tower system under a typhoon disaster is proposed. Firstly, considering the actual wind load and the design wind load, physical models for calculating the damage probability of the transmission line and power tower are established, respectively based on model-driven thought. Then, the damage probability of the transmission line-tower system is obtained, combining the transmission line and power tower damage probability. Secondly, in order to improve prediction accuracy, this paper analyzes the historical sample data containing multiple influencing factors, such as geographic information, meteorological information, and power grid information, and then obtains the correction coefficient based on data-driven thought. Thirdly, the comprehensive damage probability of the transmission line-tower system is calculated considering the results of model-driven and data-driven thought. Ultimately, the proposed method is verified to be effective, taking typhoon ‘Mangkhut’ in 2018 as a case study.
Highlights
In recent years, the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events have increased [1]
In order to improve the ability of the power grid to withstand typhoons, it is of great significance to predict the damage probability of transmission lines and power towers under typhoon disasters
This paper mainly aims at the problem of the prediction method of transmission line and power tower damage under typhoon disasters
Summary
The intensity and frequency of extreme weather events (especially typhoon disasters) have increased [1]. Transmission lines, power towers, and poles might be damaged, which may cause large area blackouts [2]. In order to improve the ability of the power grid to withstand typhoons, it is of great significance to predict the damage probability of transmission lines and power towers under typhoon disasters. In view of the damage prediction of transmission lines and power towers under typhoon disasters, according to the model-driven view, some scholars studied the mechanical characteristics and damage mechanisms and pointed out that the damage of transmission lines and power towers is mainly due to the fact that the typhoon wind speeds exceed the designed wind speeds. Different physical models of transmission lines and power towers were proposed to predict the damage probability. In [3], based on the fuzzy mathematics principle, the membership function of a typhoon disaster was obtained by analyzing the relationship between typhoon wind speed and design wind speed and the failure rate
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