Damage assessment for bearing capacity of frozen grounds due to temperatures change and permafrost thawing in the arctic zone of the Russian Federation by the middle of the 21st century

Abstract

Changes in the bearing capacity of frozen soils under various scenarios of warming in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF) by 2050 are considered. Deformations and destruction of buildings and engineering structures in the Russian Arctic will develop gradually. Taking into account the climatic scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5), in aggregate, 1/3 of the AZRF territory will experience a decrease in bearing capacity by more than 15% by the middle of the century; the Arctic coast of the European North of Russia, Yamal and the Gydan Peninsula are in the danger zone.