Daily urban water supply modeling and forecasting based on the elliptic orbit model with weekly quasi-periodic extension

Abstract

ABSTRACTModeling and forecasting for various time horizons of urban water supply are important for different operations within a utility company. This study proposes the ‘elliptic orbit model’ for daily urban water supply prediction from the viewpoint of time-series analysis. As additional efforts and costs are required to acquire and predict more different forecast variables, it is argued that many studies failed to carefully check whether such efforts and costs were deserved and to what degree they might ameliorate the prediction accuracy. Thus predictive modeling based on available water supply data has its own advantages. Only the water-supply time-sequence data is used and mapped into the polar coordinates to design the proposed ‘elliptic orbit model’, so the purpose of this study is to present one vivid approach for forecasting daily urban water supply in an intuitive and concise way. The proposed model archives satisfying experimental results and may inspire other applications.