Daily PM2.5 concentration prediction based on variational modal decomposition and deep learning for multi-site temporal and spatial fusion of meteorological factors.

Abstract

Air pollution, particularly PM2.5, has long been a critical concern for the atmospheric environment. Accurately predicting daily PM2.5 concentrations is crucial for both environmental protection and public health. This study introduces a new hybrid model within the "Decomposition-Prediction-Integration" (DPI) framework, which combines variational modal decomposition (VMD), causal convolutional neural network (CNN), bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM), and attention mechanism (AM), named as VCBA, for spatio-temporal fusion of multi-site data to forecast daily PM2.5 concentrations in a city. The approach involves integrating air quality data from the target site with data from neighboring sites, applying mathematical techniques for dimensionality reduction, decomposing PM2.5 concentration data using VMD, and utilizing Causal CNN and BiLSTM models with an attention mechanism to enhance performance. The final prediction results are obtained through linear aggregation. Experimental results demonstrate that the VCBA model performs exceptionally well in predicting daily PM2.5 concentrations at various stations in Taiyuan City, Shanxi Province, China. Evaluation metrics such as RMSE, MAE, and R2 are reported as 2.556, 1.998, and 0.973, respectively. Compared to traditional methods, this approach offers higher prediction accuracy and stronger spatio-temporal modeling capabilities, providing an effective solution for accurate PM2.5 daily concentration prediction.