Cyclo-coherent Approaches to the Management of Bifurcation States of Aggregate Economic Systems in the World Economy in the Conditions of Nonlinear Cyclic Dynamics

Abstract

Purpose: the main goal of the article is to study the possibilities of increasing the sustainability of world economic development to the crisis fluctuations of national economies and their aggregated groups under conditions when the fluctuations induced in the global crisis by the global crisis manifest coherence features. Methods: the analysis of coherent interaction processes of a set of discrete macroeconomic cycles is performed to compare the individual data of managed economic systems with the possibilities of regulating the degree of coherence of fluctuations of key processes in the national economy. Results: the necessity of transition from consideration of a separate macroeconomic cycle as a discrete process to a coherent-resonant multicyclic paradigm of economic development under which chaotic crisis phenomena are represented as external manifestations of macroeconomic nonlinear synchronization of quasiharmonic oscillations within the framework of cyclic dynamics of various processes of economic development is substantiated. Stabilization in these conditions is achieved by forming optimal values of the package of investments that form the regions of stabilization synchronization in the economy through the damping of the amplitude of destructive cycles and the creation of conditions for their asymmetry, depending on the intensity of crisis fluctuations. The necessity of establishing procedures for the international coordination of the anti-crisis policies of individual states within the framework of international clusters is substantiated using the coherent resonance model arising from the synchronization of cyclical and acyclic crisis fluctuations. Conclusions and Relevance: the influence of the dynamic properties of a multicyclic system on the behavior of its local elements (cycle synchronization, cyclic and acyclic dynamics, etc.) with respect to the dynamics of compound evolutionary (including degrading) subsystems determines the probability of transitions between stationary states of the system as a result of iterative successive losses Sustainability of economic development, etc. As a result, it is possible to maintain the sustainability of economic development at various levels of governance in the world economy. The considered administrative technology is proposed as an integral part of technologies for managing economic systems as subsystems of the world economy.