Economic development and economic policy in the transition to post-normality

Abstract

Aim. To study the transformations of economic development trends and changes in the priorities of economic policy in the period of modern political and economic turbulence associated with the transition to a new quasi-stable state of the economy — post-normality.Tasks. To consider the features of the modern Russian economic model; to describe the mechanism of the impact of macro shocks of 2020 and 2022 on the Russian and world economy; to characterize the target — postnormal — state of the national and world economy; to offer recommendations for improving economic policy in the new conditions.Methods. The author of the article used both general scientific methods of research, including systemic, retrospective, institutional and macroeconomic (positive and normative) analysis, and specialized methods of studying economic evolution, economic dynamics and statics, situational and scenario modeling, economic statistics and others.Results. In recent years, the conditions of foreign economic interaction of many national economies, especially the Russian economy, have changed. During the post-Soviet period, Russia has consistently and systematically pursued a policy of economic liberalization, in particular, foreign economic liberalization. The first significant blow to the openness of national economies was the COVID-19 pandemic. The second was the sanctions imposed against Russia by the countries of the “collective West”, which gradually affected an increasing number of countries. The essence of these shocks from the point of view of macroeconomic analysis is a jump-like increase in the closedness of the national economy. Under these conditions, it is established that national economies of post-industrial type turn out to be unstable and unviable under the new realities. This should be taken into account in economic policy. Attention should also be paid to the fact that the processes of growing crisis of the currently prevailing model of open economy will inevitably affect not only economic, but also political, cultural and other processes. An attempt to overcome the sanctions on Russia by geographical reorientation of foreign economic interactions can be effective only in the short term, as a tactical measure. Strategically, it will not work, because the flaws of the open economy model, consisting in high (and in some cases — critical) dependence of the national economy on foreign economic interactions, cannot disappear. Therefore, this openness should be reduced in areas critical for national development. Special attention in economic policy should be paid to the issues of social justice, without the solution of which it is impossible to achieve public consensus and ensure the effectiveness of the institutional changes necessary in connection with the transition to post-normality. Conclusions. The modern Russian economy is at another transitional stage of development. In general, constant transformations are a systemic property of the economy, a condition for its existence. At the same time, in modern realities there is a transformation of strategic nature associated with the change of the key feature of the existing economic model — its degree of openness. Although the Russian economy as a whole has been able to adapt to the new conditions of functioning, but this is a tactical adaptation, in the strategic aspect it is not enough for a successful transition to the post-normal stage of development. In this regard, a more balanced and active participation of the state in the management of economic development processes and their regulation is required, subject to the formation of effective economic and other incentives to support such processes for both business and the population. In view of this, it is advisable to take into account the recommendations proposed by the author of the article in the economic policy.