Cyclical fluctuations of the Russian economy

Abstract

The economy is subject to changes. It is characterized by the uneven nature of expanded reproduction: periods of increased production and consumption are combined with recessions and crises; new development trajectories emerge. The cyclical nature of economic development means that the main indicators and parameters of this process are wave-like. Interest in cyclical fluctuations is increasing, especially during crises. Each cycle has its own development and technological structure. New technologies and innovations spread during the upward wave of the subsequent cycle. During the downward wave, the development of the technological structure is slowing down, facing economic and social constraints caused by market limits and insufficient production efficiency. Previously dominant technologies and institutions become exhausted. It creates conditions for the development of new leading technologies, a new technological order and new social institutions. Thus, crises stimulate technological development. The article discusses Kitchin, Juglar, Kuznets, Kondratyev cycles and their regularities. The indicators used for tracking economic cycles, their turning points whose dynamics coincides with cyclical fluctuations of the economy are as follows: GDP growth rate; unemployment rate; consumer price index; investment growth rate; industrial production growth rate; gross saving growth rate; refinancing rate.