Cyclic dynamics of fashion: theoretical and methodological basis and prospects of the forecasting of the end of XX – beginning of XXI centuries

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to generalize the positions of the theories of cyclic fashion development and to identify their relevance in fashion trends forecasting of the end of XX – beginning of XXI centuries. Methodology. Methodological basis of the research is formed by the principles of historicism and objectivity, the laws of the system approach, a comparative and historical method of analysis. The scientific novelty of the article is to find out the relevance of the inciples of "cyclic theories" in the dynamics of fashion forecasting of the end of XX – beginning of XXI centuries. Conclusions. The analysis of the cyclicity of fashion theories confirms the topicality of a number of their principles in fashion trends forecasting of the end of XX – beginning of XXIcenturies. At the same time, the topical tasks of scientific studies are the concretization of the fashion cycles duration taking into account the dynamization of fashion changes; the analysis of the combination of natural cyclic dynamics with ascending general tendencies; the substantiation of style parameters of fashion cycles; the in-depth study of the periods of acceptance and dissemination of fashion.Key words: theories of cyclic dynamics of fashion, principles of forecasting in design, methods of prediction in design, modeling method, extrapolation