Current Trends in Russian Trade in Goods with the EU and China

Abstract

The article examines the current trends in Russia’s foreign trade with the EU and China in the context of sanctions restrictions imposed by “unfriendly” countries.Aim. The study aims to explore current trends in Russia’s foreign trade in goods with the EU and China in 2022.Objectives. The author conducts an analysis of the dynamics of Russia’s trade with the EU and China; identifies the main commodity groups that have contributed to the changes in trade with the EU and China; explores the impact of sanctions restrictions on Russia’s trade with the EU; assesses the possibilities of reorienting Russia’s foreign trade towards China.Methods. The main methods are the analysis of current statistics of foreign trade in goods between the EU and China; a comparative analysis of the dynamics of trade in commodity groups and individual goods with the EU and China; method of mirror statistics (due to the suspension of the publication of official data by the Federal Customs Service (FCS) of Russia).Results. The analysis shows a decrease in trade turnover between Russia and the EU and its growth with China. With the EU the decline in exports was mainly due to metal industry products, chemical products, precious stones and metals, and timber; in imports — at the expense of machinery and equipment. Trade with China in the main commodity groups has expanded, most significantly in terms of exports — in chemical products, in terms of imports — in machinery and equipment.Conclusions. The role of Russian exports of mineral fuels and energy as the basis for trade with the EU and China in 2022 has strengthened in the face of sanctions restrictions and rising prices. Russia’s trade with the EU reduced mainly due to the sanctioned goods. The reorientation of Russia’s foreign trade towards China is partially possible, with the restraining factors: in terms of imports — China’s lack of strong positions in certain high-tech goods; in terms of exports — objective limitations on China’s domestic market capacity, a slowdown in economic growth, a decrease in the energy intensity of the economy, competition with Russia.