Current state and risks of development of border geostrategic territories

Abstract

The instability of the geopolitical situation and the sanctions crisis are expediting the study of border regions, especially those that have the status of border geostrategic territories and are particularly important for ensuring the territorial integrity and security of the country. The authors presented an analysis of the state of border geostrategic territories in new conditions, identified risks of their further development. The authors have grouped 12 statistical indicators into employment, living standards, fiscal security and economic groups. A comparison between 2021 and 2022 revealed a high differentiation in adaptive capacity between the western and eastern regions. The degree of adaptation of border geostrategic territories is influenced by the structure of the economy, the share of exporting industries, distance from western borders. The risks of decrease of income from income tax on profit, exhaustion of potential of unemployed population have been allocated. The authors identified the risk of further decline of socio-economic potential in some border regions of the western part of the country. The assessment showed that the largest decline was in the regions where the automobile industry, metal production and certain types of chemical products play a significant role in the structure of the economy. However, domestic car production is successfully restored. The prospects for adapting the economies of exporting regions will depend on eastward supply. The authors note that the border geostrategic regions of the eastern part of the country as a whole have successfully adapted to the new conditions and have good prospects for improving regional competitiveness through the increase of commodity flows in the East Asian direction. At the same time, the risks of differentiating the eastern and western geostrategic border areas are increasing.