Current and future predicting habitat suitability map of Cunninghamia konishii Hayata using MaxEnt model under climate change in Northern Vietnam

Abstract

Cunninghamia konishii Hayata is a rare and endangered plant species that plays a relevant role in ecological andcommercial systems of natural forests in Vietnam. In this research, we evaluated the potential geographic distribution ofC. konishii under current and future climatic conditions in Northern Vietnam using the ecological niche modelling approachbased on the largest available database of occurrence records for this species. C. konishii is mainly distributed inthe northern part of Vietnam at altitudes above 1000 m where the slopes range between 12 and 25 degrees, particularlyin special-use and protected forest. The optimal distribution area of C. konishii requires specific climatic conditions: anannual precipitation around 1200 mm, precipitation of the warmest quarter ranging from 600 to 800 mm, a precipitationseasonality of 90 to100 mm, an annual mean temperature ranging from 12°C to 19°C, and a temperature seasonalityranging from 300 to 350. Additionally, the species requires specific soil groups: humic acrisols, ferralic acrisols, andyellow-red humic soils. Considering these requirements, the results of our research show that the suitable regions for thegrowth of C. konishii are found in the provinces of Ha Giang, Son La, Thanh Hoa and Nghe An, covering a total area of1509.56 km2. However, analyzing the results under the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) model, itis possible to observe that the area will decline to 504.39 km2 by 2090 according to RCP 2.6 scenario, to 406.25 km2 inthe RCP 4.5 scenario, and to 47.62 km2 in the RCP 8.5 scenario. The findings of this present research may be applied toseveral additional studies such as identifying current and future locations to establish conservation areas for C. konishii.