Crude oil price–shale oil production nexus: a predictability analysis

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to investigate the predictability of crude oil price and shale oil production, in a bid to examine the possibility of bi-directional causality.Design/methodology/approachThe study adopts a recently developed predictability model by Westerlund and Narayan (2015), which accounts for persistence, endogeneity and heteroscedasticity. It also accounts for structural breaks in the predictive models.FindingsThe empirical results show that only a unidirectional causal relationship from crude oil price to shale oil production exists. This happens as crude oil price appears to be a good predictor of shale oil production; however, shale oil production does not serve as a good predictor for crude oil price. Accounting for structural break was found to improve the predictability and forecast accuracy of the predictive model. Our result is robust to choice of crude oil price benchmarks (West Texas Intermediate, Brent, Dubai Fateh and Refiners’ Acquisition Cost) and their denominations (real or nominal).Research limitations/implicationsThe result implies that crude oil price must be considered when predicting shale oil production. Meanwhile, the non-significance of shale of production in crude oil price predictive model provides information to potential analyst, researchers and countries predicting crude oil price that failure to account for the effect of shale oil production would not have significant impact on the forecast accuracy of their models.Originality/valueThe study contributes originally to the literature on crude oil price–shale oil production in four major ways. First, it applies a recently developed predictability method by Westerlund and Narayan (2015), which is more suitable for dealing with persistence, conditional heteroscedasticity and endogeneity in the predictors. Second, it investigates existence of reverse causality between crude oil price and shale oil production. Third, it examines the variation in the response and effect of four major crude oil price benchmarks. Fourth, it considers crude oil price in both real and nominal terms.