Connection between urbanization and CO2 emissions in South Africa: does global uncertainty matter?

Abstract

Purpose Given the interest in sustainable development, this study aims to assess the relationship between CO2 and urbanization as well as the role of world uncertainty in this association in a South African context. Design/methodology/approach This study focuses on yearly data from 1968 to 2020. To do this, the authors use the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. Findings The authors find that urbanization’s effect on CO2 emissions is only significant when it is augmented with world uncertainty. Moreover, this effect is negative (referring to a reduction in CO2 emissions). Meanwhile, the authors find that GDP has a positive (that is, increasing) and significant effect on CO2 emissions. Overall, policymakers should focus on decoupling economic growth from traditional fossil fuels that produce greenhouse gas emissions. Originality/value The existing body of research contains numerous studies examining the relationship between urbanization and CO2 emissions. However, the dearth of research on the impact of global uncertainty on this connection is weak. Hence, this study aims to fill this gap and make a significant contribution to the field.