Crude oil prices and macroeconomic activities: a structural VAR approach to Indonesia

Abstract

ABSTRACT The effects of oil price fluctuations on growth, inflation, and exchange rates for Indonesia are investigated in the framework of the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR). To identify linking oil prices to the macroeconomic activities accurately, the entire sample period is separated into two sub-samples such as the era of net oil exporter (1998:M1-2003:M12) and the era of net oil importer (2004:M1-2019:M4). In the era of net oil exporter, we discover that a surge in oil prices promotes growth and contributes to appreciating the Indonesian currency. In the era of net oil importer, by contrast, an upsurge in oil prices reduces growth and causes a depreciation of the exchange rate. However, there is little evidence that an upswing in oil prices in both eras has a significantly detrimental effect on inflation.