Crude oil and natural gas supplies and demands for Denmark

Abstract

A novel technique for forecasting the supply and extraction life-cycles of a depleting fossil fuel resource has been developed. The supply side utilises a ‘skewed-normal production-profile’ model that yields a better representation than earlier approaches. A simple model for extrapolating crude oil and natural gas demands has also been devised: it is based on the so-called ‘modified logit function’. The predicted crude oil and natural gas balances, for the period up to ad 2010, indicate the disparities between the rates of indigenous production and future consumption for Denmark. These forecasts depend on the present estimates of the remaining crude oil and natural gas reserves. It will consequently be necessary to revise periodically the present projection as more reliable reserves estimates become available.