Cross-cutting scenarios and strategies for designing decarbonization pathways in the transport sector toward carbon neutrality

Abstract

The transport sector will play a pivotal role in achieving China’s carbon neutrality goal by 2060. This study develops a regional transport-energy integrated model to analyze the long-term pathways and strategies toward the carbon-neutral ground transport sector in China. A set of scenarios are created to identify the effectiveness and feasibility of low-carbon policy measures based on the well-known transport strategies within the Avoid–Shift–Improve framework. Our simulations shed light on synergistic coupling and trade-offs among different strategies and instruments for prescribing a desirable mix of policy measures that maximize the synergies and minimize the trade-offs. Here, we show that a region-specific policy package designed from a balanced perspective under the Avoid–Shift–Improve framework has the potential to realize a deep decarbonization in the transport sector and will greatly assist in achieving China’s carbon neutrality by 2060.