Crop Yield Assessment Using Field-Based Data and Crop Models at the Village Level: A Case Study on a Homogeneous Rice Area in Telangana, India

Abstract

Crop yield estimation has gained importance due to its vital significance for policymakers and decision-makers in enacting schemes, ensuring food security, and assessing crop insurance losses due to biotic and abiotic stress. This research focused on rice yield estimation at the field level in the Karimnagar district of Telangana during 2021 and 2022 by employing the leaf area index (LAI) as the primary criterion for integrating remote sensing technology and crop simulation models. Using Sentinel-2 satellite data, the rice crop was mapped with the help of ground data and machine learning algorithms, attaining an accuracy of 93.04%. Crop management data for the DSSAT tool were collected during the field visits; the model results revealed a 0.80 correlation between observed and predicted yields. Due to its strong correlation with LAI (0.82), the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was selected as the critical element for integration with the model. A spatial LAI map was generated using the linear equation developed between the NDVI and LAI. The relationship between LAI and yield was used to create a spatial yield map. The study’s findings show that assimilating remote sensing data with crop models enhances the precision of rice yield prediction for insurance companies and policy- and decision-makers.