Abstract
Climate change is increasing mean and extreme temperatures in the Southwestern United States, leading to a suite of changes affecting agricultural production. These include changes in water, soils, pathogens, weeds, and pests comprising the production environment. The aim of this synthesis is to describe the anticipated leading agricultural pressures and adaptive responses, many of which are near-term actions with longer-term consequences. In the semiarid Southwestern United States, climate change is expected to increase water scarcity. Surface water shortage is the leading reason for recent diminished crop yields in the Southwest. Drought and lack of water represent the leading regional weather-related cause of crop loss from 1989 to 2017. Thus, water scarcity has been and will continue to be a critical factor leading to regional crop vulnerability. Soils, pathogens, weeds, and insects are components of the agricultural production environment and are directly influenced by near-term weather and long-term climate conditions. Field crops, vegetable crops, and perennial crops have unique production requirements and diverse management options, many already used in farm management, to cope with production environment changes to build climate resilience. Farmers and ranchers continuously respond to changing conditions on a near-term basis. Long-term planning and novel adaptation measures implemented may now build nimble and responsive systems and communities able to cope with future conditions. While decision-support tools and resources are providing increasingly sophisticated approaches to cope with production in the 21st century, we strive to keep pace with the cascading barrage of inter-connected agricultural challenges.
Highlights
In the Southwestern U.S (SW), future crop production, rangelands, and forests are projected to be impacted by increased temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns [1]
Water scarcity has been and will continue to be a critical factor leading to regional crop vulnerability
Sustainability 2019, 11, 6619 address both near- and long-term adaptation options in agriculture, we describe adaptation options by resource and propose long-term impacts (Table 1), such that if the action is implemented in the near term, it could lead to a long-term impact
Summary
In the Southwestern U.S (SW), future crop production, rangelands, and forests are projected to be impacted by increased temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns [1]. Agricultural production in the region is already challenged by limited water resources, drought, and temperature variability. Climate trends point towards continued warming, increasing average maximum temperatures, and more variable, unpredictable, extreme, and limited precipitation [7]. Management actions can determine how critically the impacts of near- and longer-term weather and climatic events will affect agricultural vulnerability. Extreme weather events and the ensuing changes in the near-term production environment can impact the management of plant stressors and plant biostimulants. Biotic stresses related to pathogens, weeds, and pests are projected to affect crop growth and yields. Soil health and available water quality and quantity will affect the ability of an agroecosystem to respond to increases in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns. We discuss the interacting components and vulnerabilities of agroecosystems, as well as adaptive measures to reduce near- and long-term climate risk
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