Abstract

 Critical analysis of magnitudes andtrends of temporal changes in maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures as well as rainfall during three time series i.e. past (observed data, 1970-1990), present (observed data, 1989-2018) and future (bias corrected modelled data, 2021-2050) reveals that on the whole, inter–series mean of all the three climate parameters increased, and variation decreased in future time series. The magnitude of these trends varied with the model as well as scenario; was highest in RCP 8.5 scenario. Intra-series trends at annual and seasonal scales are dictated by inconsistent monthly trends. This study also adds that decline incrop yields of rice-wheat system with warming in future can be ascribed to increased frequency of days having yield constraining temperatures (above ceiling and below critically low during crop growth and reproduction stages) rather than their elevated magnitudes only as anticipated previously.
Highlights
Climate change is a continuous process; it was at works in the past, is at present and would be in future
The spatial and temporal climate data for past and present is readily available as observations,but estimates of future data are unwieldy, and is unfolded by projections, prediction and forecast from (i) stochastic simulations and (ii) climate models like general circular (GCM), regional climate (RCM) based on emission scenario and representative concentration pathways (RCP) based on radiative forcing
Though the climate change in future is very much uncertain yet is dominantly characterised by increasing temperature
Summary
Climate change is a continuous process; it was at works in the past, is at present and would be in future. Though the climate change in future is very much uncertain yet is dominantly characterised by increasing temperature. These changes are not limited to climate change only, but have produced occasional extremes (record breaking events) which caused crop and human losses at global level. It has been recognized that increased magnitude of temperatures and number of days above ceiling and below critical low temperatures affect crop yields by changing crop physiological processes and phenology Keeping this in view, the present study was undertaken with the objectives to (i) statistically analyze the magnitude and trends of interand intra-time series changes in climate parameters like Tmax, Tmin and RF and (ii) changes in frequency of the days having above ceiling and below critically low temperatures constraining crop yield in rice–wheat system during past, present and future time series
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