Criteria to Confirm Models that Simulate Deforestation and Carbon Disturbance

Robert Pontius

doi:10.3390/land7030105

Abstract

The Verified Carbon Standard (VCS) recommends the Figure of Merit (FOM) as a possible metric to confirm models that simulate deforestation baselines for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD). The FOM ranges from 0% to 100%, where larger FOMs indicate more-accurate simulations. VCS requires that simulation models achieve a FOM greater than or equal to the percentage deforestation during the calibration period. This article analyses FOM’s mathematical properties and illustrates FOM’s empirical behavior by comparing various models that simulate deforestation and the resulting carbon disturbance in Bolivia during 2010–2014. The Total Operating Characteristic frames FOM’s mathematical properties as a function of the quantity and allocation of simulated deforestation. A leaf graph shows how deforestation’s quantity can be more influential than its allocation when simulating carbon disturbance. Results expose how current versions of the VCS methodologies could conceivably permit models that are less accurate than a random allocation of deforestation, while simultaneously prohibit models that are accurate concerning carbon disturbance. Conclusions give specific recommendations to improve the next version of the VCS methodology concerning three concepts: the simulated deforestation quantity, the required minimum FOM, and the simulated carbon disturbance.

Highlights

Computerized simulation models quantify the effects of conservation projects designed for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD)
The horizontal expresses simulated carbon disturbance as a multiple of actual carbon disturbance, which is the mass of simulated carbon disturbance divided by the mass of actual carbon disturbance during the confirmation period
The results show how Figure of Merit (FOM) does not indicate accuracy of carbon disturbance

Summary

Introduction

Computerized simulation models quantify the effects of conservation projects designed for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD). A model simulates the deforestation and resulting greenhouse gas emissions that would likely occur without a conservation project. A project’s offset is the model’s simulated emissions minus the project’s actual emissions. The National Research Council [2] emphasizes that selection criteria should relate to the model’s purposes [3]. A model’s purposes for REDD are to simulate deforestation and the resulting emissions. The Verified Carbon Standard (VCS) methodologies for unplanned deforestation recommends that model selection and confirmation use a metric called the Figure of Merit (FOM) [4]. This article analyzes the VCS criteria by examining the FOM’s ability to evaluate simulation models with respect to the goals of REDD

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion