Crises and Crossroads in Ethiopia

Abstract

The modern history of Ethiopia is marked by episodic ruptures, passages of violent crisis that led to political reformation, and that are supposed to lead to a new relationship between the state and its citizens. These “moments” are well-known to students of the region's past: the seizure of power by the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) and the assertion of Eritrean independence in the early 1990s; the overthrow of the imperial regime and the rise of the Derg in the mid-1970s; the Italian invasion and occupation of Ethiopia in the 1930s; the struggle to oust of Lij Iyasu in the late 1910s. Certain themes are perennial, not least the demand for rights and representation among the marginalized, and the centrifugalism which periodically threatens to destroy the polity itself. The current situation, beginning in the mid-2010s, feels like a similar kind of moment. Over the past few years, we have seen the emergence of a potent popular protest movement, involving Oromo and Amhara; the rise of Abiy Ahmed and the dismantling of the EPRDF regime; a dangerously resurgent regime in Eritrea; and of course, the devastating war in Tigray, with its appalling and manifold atrocities. Together, these various challenges constitute an existential threat to Ethiopia itself. And they are deep-rooted—as all of Ethiopia's moments of rupture, crisis and reform have been.It would be understandable if, from the standpoint of the early 2020s, we had given up on the idea of “progress.” But it is worth reflecting on how many tragic mistakes have been made in the course of the long twentieth century as Ethiopian political elites have sought to shore up their own positions to the detriment of swathes of the population; how many of the latter have died as a result, or been on the receiving end of life-changing assault, or experienced marginalization and impoverishment and Otherization; how often a new cohort of political leaders have apparently believed that their reformist visions are the answer, only to find out that they too will be swept aside in time, because their visions are not in fact the answer. It is almost four decades since the first substantive scholarship emerged with the aim of decolonizing Ethiopian history, involving in essence the reinterpretation of the empire-state from the perspective of its many constituent parts, rather than simply from the center as a previous generation of Ethiophile scholars had largely done.1 One might argue that new momentum is needed in terms of this kind of work, which has perhaps stalled somewhat in recent years. The collection of essays presented here provides that momentum, and deservedly takes its place alongside burgeoning analysis that has sought to understand Ethiopia in the post-Meles Zenawi era.2The authors tackle a range of topics from various angles. Asebe Regassa, Gutu Wayessa, and Kjetil Tronvoll assess the unfolding political crisis, including the collapse of the federal system that, while never fully embraced by everyone, was once seen as an innovative attempt to resolve cyclical violence and to mitigate the challenge presented by ethno-nationalism.3 The problem, however, was the EPRDF itself, and the legacy it has left. Asebe Regassa discusses the reversion under Abiy to something more akin to the former “imperial” system of governance, constituting an eschewal of the ethnofederal experiment of the past three decades—and all this despite the (brief) optimism surrounding Abiy, initially. His shift back toward a unitary political culture has created existential risks for the country. Gutu Wayessa also considers the shift from the federal to the unitary evident in the passage from EPRDF rule to Prosperity Party (PP) governance, but this time in the context of economic development. Acknowledging that the EPRDF's “developmental state” approach delivered impressive growth, Wayessa nonetheless demonstrates that the approach was rather less spectacular when it came to equitable distribution. Nonetheless, the unitary strategy for development now in train under the PP bodes ill for Ethiopia's prospects. Kjetil Tronvoll also examining the factors behind the demise of the EPRDF, suggests that the federal system was in many ways inherently divisive and increasingly violently fractious. He argues that the collapse of the EPRDF needs to be seen in terms of both “internal” power struggles—over ideology, political practices, and the very nature of the federal state—and also the ethnonationalism that has been fostered over the last thirty years in many ways by the very system that supposedly sought to contain it.At the same time, the popular Oromo uprising can be seen as the catalyst for a much wider protest movement. Lest we forget, Oromo insurgency has been driving change in Ethiopia for a very long time, and recent events can only be fully grasped when placed in historical perspective.4 And that is exactly what Etana Dinka is doing in considering the long-term roots of the Oromo uprising of 2014–2017, positioning those events, which precipitated the fall of Hailemariam Desalegn and the rise of Abiy Ahmed, as the culmination of a decades-long struggle for representation, inclusion, and reform in the face of state violence and deliberate marginalization. In a similar vein, Ezekiel Gebissa draws attention to presence of contradictory nationalisms at the heart of the Ethiopian body politic since the 1960s: ethnonationalism and ethionationalism. Both have failed, he argues, and have worked to deny the Oromo access to political power—leading directly to the current crisis.Mebratu Kelecha also considers the nature, aims, and composition of the social protest movement initiated by the Oromo from 2014 onward, and pans out to reflect on the manner in which the mobilization of Oromo youth led to the creation of a remarkably broad-based protest movement that came to encompass a range of actors, including Amhara, and into which Oromo and Amhara elites in the EPRDF soon tapped in demanding an end to EPRDF authoritarianism. Kelecha draws attention to the marked lack of organized political parties in the protest movement, and the fact that the latter was able to bring together so many formerly rival and fragmented groups and grievances. Meanwhile, as is the case everywhere, contestations over politics or socioeconomic and cultural issues is no longer confined to physical terrain. Kebene Wodajo reflects on the role played by the digital space in recent years—correctly identified here as definitively not a “neutral” environment—focusing in particular on the right to privacy for citizens in the face of increasing state surveillance.The question of whether Ethiopia can survive these combined crises, the most serious in a generation, is an urgent one. The policy shifts needed to develop workable solutions will have long-term consequences, and so readers should pay careful attention to what this group of excellent scholars has to say about a range of issues. There are lessons here for anyone, inside or outside Ethiopia, willing to see them. This is about the episodic convergence of forces created by long-term denial and/or active repression and marginalization. The path ahead is not easy; it is strewn with challenges. But reading the lessons contained in these seven essays, from the recent as well as the deeper past, might go some way to mitigating the trauma as millions of Ethiopians face another of those moments of upheaval and rupture that have defined the country's modern era.