Abstract
In recent years, along with the development of the urban public transport system, bus pickpocketing crimes have garnered increasing attention. In this paper, a complete and clear structure including finding patterns based on data, applying criminological theory to explain patterns, and using empirical investigation method to verify theoretical explanation are presented. We found that temperature and season are not clearly correlated with bus pickpocketing. The AQI and PM2.5 indices, however, demonstrated significant correlations with daily bus pickpocketing incidents: the worse the air quality, the more bus pickpocketing occurred. Then two empirical investigations were carried out to verified that crime pattern theory and rational choice theory can be used to explain the impact of air quality on bus pickpocketing crime. Furthermore, we utilized the SVM method to predict daily bus pickpocketing crime risk with an accuracy rate of 81%. The results of this paper can provide early warnings of urban bus pickpocketing and help police reduce crimes.
Published Version
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