CREDIBILITY OF CHERNOBYL THYROID DOSES EXCEEDING 10 Gy BASED ON IN-VIVO MEASUREMENTS OF 131I IN BELARUS

Abstract

Many estimates of individual thyroid doses to children and adults in Belarus have been based on the results of direct thyroid measurements made using survey meters soon after the Chernobyl accident in 1986. Thyroid doses from internal exposure to 131I that are estimated using such measurements are usually considered to be better than estimates obtained by environmental transport modeling of concentrations expected in milk. Nonetheless, some of the estimated doses, primarily those to children, were high enough to raise questions about their credibility. Questions about high thyroid doses, taken here to be those exceeding 10 Gy, identified the need for further analysis, which is reported in this article. The overall conclusion is that the initial dose estimates exceeding 10 Gy based on direct thyroid measurements in Belarus are credible estimates and not mistakes. While the possibility of copying and data entry errors cannot be completely ruled out, the consistency of multiple measurements for many individuals supports the high dose estimates.