Covid19Risk.ai: An Open Source Repository and Online Calculator of Prediction Models for Early Diagnosis and Prognosis of Covid-19

Abstract

Background: The current pandemic has led to a proliferation of predictive models being developed to address various aspects of COVID-19 patient care. We aimed to develop an online platform that would serve as an open source repository for a curated subset of such models, and provide a simple interface for included models to allow for online calculation. This platform would support doctors during decision-making regarding diagnoses, prognoses, and follow-up of COVID-19 patients, expediting the models’ transition from research to clinical practice. Methods: In this pilot study, we performed a literature search in the PubMed and WHO databases to find suitable models for implementation on our platform. All selected models were publicly available (peer reviewed publications or open source repository) and had been validated (TRIPOD type 3 or 2b). We created a method for obtaining the regression coefficients if only the nomogram was available in the original publication. All predictive models were transcribed on a practical graphical user interface using PHP 8.0.0, and were published online together with supporting documentation and links to the associated articles. Results: The open source website currently incorporates nine models from six different research groups, evaluated on datasets from different countries. The website will continue to be populated with other models related to COVID-19 prediction as these become available. This dynamic platform allows COVID-19 researchers to contact us to have their model curated and included on our website, thereby increasing the reach and real-world impact of their work. Conclusion: We have successfully demonstrated in this pilot study that our website provides an inclusive platform for predictive models related to COVID-19. It enables doctors to supplement their judgment with patient-specific predictions from externally validated models in a user-friendly format. Additionally, this platform supports researchers in showcasing their work, which will increase the visibility and use of their models.