Abstract
COVID-19 has now taken a frightening form. As the day passes, it is becoming more and more widespread and now it has become an epidemic. The death rate, which was earlier in the hundreds, changed to thousands and then progressed to millions respectively. If the same situation persists over time, the day is not far when the humanity of all the countries on the globe will be endangered and we yearn for breath. From January 2020 till now, many scientists, researchers and doctors are also trying to solve this complex problem so that proper arrangements can be made by the governments in the hospitals and the death rate can be reduced. The presented research article shows the estimated mortality rate by the ARIMA model and the Regression model. This dataset has been collected precisely from DataHub-Novel Coronavirus 2019 - Dataset from 22nd January to 29th June 2020. In order to show the current mortality rate of the entire subject, the correlation coe¨cients of attributes (MAE, MSE, RMSE and MAPE) were used, where the average absolute percentage error validated the model by 99.09%. The ARIMA model is used to generate auto_arima SARIMAX results, auto_arima residual plots, ARIMA model results, and corresponding prediction plots on the training data set. These data indicate a continuous decline in death cases. By applying a regression model, the coe¨cients generated by the regression model are estimated, and the actual death cases and expected death cases are compared and analyzed. It is found that the predicted mortality rate has decreased after May 2, 2020. It will learn help the government and doctors prepare for the next plans. Based on short- period predictions these methods can use forecast for long-period.
Highlights
As indicated by the World Health Organization, the CoViD-19 virus is a communicable disease that spreads from one person to another
If the same situation persists over time, the day is not far when the humanity of all the countries on the globe will be endangered and we yearn for breath
In order to show the current mortality rate of the entire subject, the correlation coefficients of attributes (MAE, Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)) were used, where the average absolute percentage error validated the model by 99.09%
Summary
As indicated by the World Health Organization, the CoViD-19 virus is a communicable disease that spreads from one person to another. Group of RNA viruses are called corona virus [5] In humans, it causes respiratory tract infections. The ratio of death rate is 5.4% till 16 June 2020 against 437,283 deaths for 8,051,732 cases This number may vary from time to time and region to region [8]. It has been about 6 months since the Covid-19 pandemic has spread, many researchers have done a lot of work on it and it is being worked on continuously. Which includes ARIMA (0,2,1) for the lowest MAPE (4.7520) for Italy, for Spain and France were selected separately with ARIMA (1,2,0) and ARIMA (0,2,1) and lowest MAPE (5.58486) and (5.6335) respectively This test shows that ARIMA modal is appropriate to understand the effect of CoViD-19. The aftereffects of the examination can reveal insight into understanding the patterns of the episode and give a thought of the epidemiological phase of these locales
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