COVID-19: assessment and forecast of the development of the residential real estate market of the Russian Federation using the housing affordability factor model

Abstract

The situation in the Russian real estate market can be significantly aggravated in the context of the crisis caused by the pandemic COVID-19. To understand how soon the Russian residential real estate market will be able to adapt to the new realities, it is necessary to give a forecast of the main trends that will occur in this sector in the post-viral era. The impact on the residential real estate market of the crisis caused by the widespread introduction of the quarantine regime and other restrictive measures in the framework of countering the pandemic of viral infection, the declaration of public health emergencies has not been investigated in the international and domestic literature. Since the current crisis is caused by the shock of demand and the shock of supply, which allows us to talk about it as a financial crisis with massive bankruptcy of both legal entities and individuals, the authors in their study relied on scientific works, the subject of which were the development of the real estate market in the context of the economic crisis. The main results of the study include: highlighting the characteristics of the residential real estate market that developed on the eve of the outbreak of the crisis; in conditions of shock period; its restoration and possible directions for the development of the residential real estate market in the near and medium term. In order to predict the situation in the domestic residential real estate market, a model of housing affordability ratio was applied (taking into account mortgage support). The findings of a study of the situation in the residential real estate market allowed the authors to propose a number of measures that need to be taken at the level of state authorities in the context of the "pandemic effect."