Covid-19 prevalence and empty college seats

Abstract

ABSTRACT Using the National Association for College Admission Counselling’s annual list of colleges with open seats and Covid-19 cases and deaths at the county level, this paper provides a first look at how Covid-19 has altered enrolment at four-year colleges. I find that a one standard deviation increase in deaths per 100,000 is associated with a 61% increase in the probability that a school reports available seats, housing, and aid for first-year students. For a one standard deviation increase in cases per 100,000, schools are 53% more likely to report openings. For a one standard deviation increase in the growth rate of deaths and cases, schools are 45 and 56%, respectively, more likely to report openings. These openings are not driven by the fact that many Covid-19 hot spots in March and April of 2020 are also home to schools with higher tuition and fees, a high share of out-of-state or international students, and more progressive political leanings.