COVID-19 KINETICS BASED ON REPORTED DAILY INCIDENCE IN HIGHLY DEVASTATED GEOGRAPHICAL REGION: A UNIQUE ANALYSIS APPROACH OF EPIDEMIC

Abstract

The recent outbreak of COVID-19 has impacted the whole globe in various facets of life. Most challenges stem from the public health effect with morbidities and mortalities extensively and comprehensively recorded and reported. The present case provides a unique analysis of the database of the observed cases and deaths of the corona virus pandemic. The focus was on one of the most devastating geographical locations in the world. The dataset of the USA was extracted and arranged chronologically over 106 weeks. The kinetics of mortality and morbidity were analyzed using three-dimensional graphs and control charts. Modeling of the cumulative dataset after logarithmic transformation was executed and the model was analyzed for fitting in terms of regression and error. A strong correlation existed between the number of reported cases and deaths over the study period with noticeable signs of six overlapping waves. Logarithmic transformation (to the base ten) showed improvement in data fitting with an appreciable reduction in standard error and residual parameters. The best-fitted model was an exponential association that could be used to evaluate the severity and frequency of the epidemic in terms of cumulative daily cases and deaths. The provided examination highlights the importance of the new statistical techniques for public health assessment and confrontation of the outbreaks by practitioners and professionals for community protection by providing measurable metrics for the evaluation of the health effect of the disease in the community. Peer Review History: Received: 1 November 2022; Revised: 7 December; Accepted: 4 January 2023, Available online: 15 January 2023 Academic Editor: Dr. Jennifer Audu-Peter, University of Jos, Nigeria, drambia44@gmail.com Received file: Reviewer's Comments: Average Peer review marks at initial stage: 6.0/10 Average Peer review marks at publication stage: 7.5/10 Reviewers: Dr. Bilge Ahsen KARA, Ankara Gazi Mustafa Kemal Hospital, Turkey, ahsndkyc@gmail.com Dr. George Zhu, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran, sansan4240732@163.com Similar Articles: COVID-19 PANDEMIC AWARENESS AND ITS IMPACT ON BANGLADESHI PEOPLE: A COMMUNITY BASED SURVEY KNOWLEDGE, CHARACTERISTICS, WORK SITES OF HEALTH PRACTITIONERS FOR CHEST PHYSIOTHERAPY IN PATIENTS WITH COVID-19, IN KHARTOUM, SUDAN COVID-19 IN MEXICO: PREPARING FOR FUTURE PANDEMICS