COVID-19 in Italy: An Analysis of Death Registry Data.

Abstract

ABSTRACTBackgroundThere are still many unknowns about COVID-19. We do not know its exact mortality rate nor the speed through which it spreads across communities. This lack of evidence complicates the design of appropriate response policies.MethodsWe source daily death registry data for 4100 municipalities in Italy’s north and match them to Census data. We augment the dataset with municipality-level data on a host of co-factors of COVID-19 mortality, which we exploit in a differences-in-differences regression model to analyze COVID-19-induced mortality.ResultsWe find that COVID-19 killed more than 0.15% of the local population during the first wave of the epidemic. We also show that official statistics vastly underreport this death toll, by about 60%. Next, we uncover the dramatic effects of the epidemic on nursing home residents in the outbreak epicenter: in municipalities with a high share of the elderly living in nursing homes, COVID-19 mortality was about twice as high as in those with no nursing home intown.ConclusionsA pro-active approach in managing the epidemic is key to reduce COVID-19 mortality. Authorities should ramp-up testing capacity and increase contact-tracing abilities. Adequate protective equipment should be provided to nursing home residents and staff.