COVID-19 emerging risk assessment for the construction industry of developing countries: evidence from Iraq

Abstract

In developing countries, the construction industry has been one of the hardest hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. The impact of the pandemic has created a whole new set of risks, causing workforce-related issues, supply chain disruptions, and legal and contractual implications. This research aims to identify and quantitatively analyse COVID-19 emerging risks in the construction industry of Iraq. A mixed method approach was used for data collection and analysis, including a focus group session to identify COVID-19 emerging risks, a survey to rate the identified risks, and the development of a fuzzy-based risk assessment model to analyse the level of riskiness of the identified risks. Results indicate that the most critical COVID-19 risks are (1) contract suspension, (2) contractor bankruptcy, (3) materials price escalation, (4) construction contract claims, (5) inappropriate risk allocation, (6) non-compliance with social distancing guidelines, (7) skills shortage, and (8) poor site and virtual communication. This paper contributes to the body of knowledge by providing academics and industry practitioners with a more comprehensive understanding of the risks arising from the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, this paper presents a novel model for analysing risks related to extreme conditions, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and future pandemics.