COVID-19, China, and African Development: Crisis, Continuity, or Readjustment?

Abstract

While the COVID-19 slowdown is pushing some African countries substantially further toward debt crises and demands for cancellation and/or renegotiation are already underfoot, China is responding to these requests using its longstanding approach of bilateral discussions that resist cancellation of the majority of debts but consider renegotiation. [...]China has long been a partner in addressing African medical and public health challenges, and Chinese COVID-related aid in this sector continues to follow the decades-long blueprint of linking Chinese provincial medical teams to specific recipient countries alongside a provisioning of supplies and construction of medical infrastructure. [...]the widespread suspicion that the disease jumped to humans from a wild animal appears to be crystallizing China’s ambition to regulate its trade in wild animals and animal products, many of which originate in Africa. Following the coronavirus outbreak, China has taken initial steps to eradicate its domestic market for wild animals, and early anecdotal evidence of a slump in demand in African markets suggests these measures are already having an effect.5 Sharp reductions in Chinese trading of African wildlife would have not only major ecological benefits, but also developmental ones—by reducing organized crime and the depletion of biological resources. 7 Crucially, lockdowns and the global economic slowdown have had a profound impact on livelihoods: survey data from the Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Burkina Faso, and Nigeria suggest that 75% of households have lost some or all of their income.8 According to the World Bank, 2020 real per capita GDP is likely to have declined to 2008 levels in Sub-Saharan Africa.9 Drops in Chinese economic activity on the continent exacerbate these broader patterns.