Covid-19 Affects The US Economy Uncertainty?

Abstract

The economic and social costs of the COVID-19 pandemic affect society, individual investors, policy makers and all financial market participants. The COVID-19 pandemic has created shock waves in financial markets, as well as commodity prices, including oil, and the real economy. This study analyzes the short-term and long-term relations among the number of total COVID-19 cases, USA stock price index, crude oil price and economic policy uncertainty index for USA, based on daily figures between 31.12.2019 and 30.11.2020. The results of the study indicate that there are short-term and long-term cointegration between economic policy uncertainty index determinants in USA. Long-term elasticities project that a 1% increase in the number of COVID-19 cases would lead to an increase of 0.086% in USA economic policy uncertainty index, and an increase of 1% in crude oil price would lead to a decrease of 0.410% in USA economic policy uncertainty index and an increase of 1% in USA stock price index would lead to a 3.167% decrease in USA economic policy uncertainty index.