Coupling the 4M crop model with national geo-databases for assessing the effects of climate change on agro-ecological characteristics of Hungary

Abstract

The 4M crop model was used to investigate the prospective effects of climate change on the agro-ecological characteristics of Hungary. The model was coupled with a detailed meteorological database and spatial soil information systems covering the whole territory of Hungary. Plant-specific model parameters were determined by inverse modeling. Future meteorological data were produced from the present meteorological data by combining a climate change scenario and a stochastic weather generator. Using the available and the generated data, the present and the prospective agro-ecological characteristics of Hungary were determined. According to the simulation results, average yields will decrease considerably (~30%) due to climate change. The rate of nitrate leaching will prospectively decrease as well. The fluctuations of both the yields and the annual nitrate leaching rates will most likely increase approaching the end of the twenty-first century. On the basis of the simulation results, the role of autumn crops is likely to become more significant in Hungary. The achieved results can be generalized for more extended regions based on the concept of spatial (geographical) analogy.