Coupling climate risks, eco‐systems, and anthropogenic decisions using South American and Sub‐Saharan farming activities

Abstract

ABSTRACTThis paper provides an analysis of the interplays between climate risks, eco‐systems and adaptation decisions using South American and Sub‐Saharan African farm surveys. Climate risk indicators such as seasonal Coefficient of Variation in Precipitation (CVP) and Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR) are matched with major eco‐systems. Adoption decisions of the six natural resource enterprises are modelled using a spatial Logit model. First, this paper finds that climate risks are higher in the grasslands and meadow eco‐systems in South America as they are high in the lowland arid zones in Africa. However, climate risks across the continent are, compared with Sub‐Saharan Africa, much lower in South America. Second, a higher temperature implies a higher climate risk in Africa, which is not the case in South America owing to the predominant influences of regional weather events such as the ENSO. Third, while the CVP is a dominant risk factor in Africa, the DTR is a dominant risk factor in South America due to the vast ranges of the Andes Mountain. Winter DTR is predicted to fall by 3 °C under both the UKMO and the GISS scenarios by the middle of this century. Altered climate risks will push a large number of farmers to switch away from a crops‐only enterprise due to a large decrease in daily temperature variability. Farmers adapt by increasing a crops‐livestock enterprise in the grasslands with wood cover and subtropical drought‐deciduous forests. This paper provides a coupled analysis of global (climate), local (eco‐systems) and individual (adaptation) processes.