Abstract

In this article, a pioneering (geometric) approach based on a new what is named here Glued Bivariate Poisson (GBP) distribution is constructed to demystify the 21st century incidences of earthquakes and their aftershocks. A warning risk index for an earthquake or an aftershock to occur is formulated and computed for each of the thirteen major tectonic plates. This article reports a surprise and it is that there exists a geo angle constancy, 1.571 in the results pertaining to earthquakes or aftershocks in all the tectonic plates no matter what varying interlocked “glue level” among the African, Antarctica, Arabian, Australian, Caribbean, Coco’s, Eurasian, Indian, North American, Pacific, Philippine, South American and Scotia tectonic plates. The contents of this article identified higher risk plates, which include Eurasian, India, Pacific and Philippines plates, where earthquakes of Kathmandu, Nepal (on 26 April 2015) and Chich-Shima, Japan (on 30 May 2015) occurred as validations of the contents of this article. An interesting geologic-constancy of 1.571 is noticed based on our statistical approach and an appropriate representative random sampling.

Highlights

  • The earliest earthquake occurred in 1831 BC in the Shandong province of China

  • Scientists wonder whether earthquakes and/or their aftershocks are more frequent in the 21st century than in the past

  • Let us learn the background in the prediction of earthquakes or aftershocks, which occur due to drifting tectonic plates (Wegener, 1912)

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Summary

Introduction

The earliest earthquake occurred in 1831 BC in the Shandong province of China. The world’s deadliest earthquake occurred in 1556 AD in central China and it killed 830,000 people. Let us learn the background in the prediction of earthquakes or aftershocks, which occur due to drifting tectonic plates (Wegener, 1912). This article finds a surprise and it is that there exists a geo angle constancy, 1.571 in the results pertaining to earthquakes and aftershocks in all the tectonic plates no matter what varying interlocked “glue level” among them.

Results
Conclusion

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