Abstract
Probability distribution is adopted to evaluate the cost risk of large hydropower project. Risk factors are firstly identified through Work Breakdown Structure(WBS), Cost Breakdown Structure(CBS) and Risk Breakdown Structure(RBS), and then individual risk factor probability distribution is measured by method combined Monte Carlo simulation model and the controlled interval memory (CIM) model. By superimposing individual ones, probability distribution of cost under the influence of a number of risk factors is achieved, which provides effective information for investment decision and cost control.
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