Cost-optimal electricity systems with increasing renewable energy penetration for islands across the globe

Dean Marcus Gioutsos,Kornelis Blok,Leonore Van Velzen,Sjoerd Moorman

doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.05.108

Dean Marcus Gioutsos, Kornelis Blok + Show 2 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.05.108

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Journal: Applied energy	Publication Date: Jun 7, 2018
Citations: 91	License type: cc-by

Affiliation: Delft University of Technology

Abstract

Cost-optimal electricity system configurations with increasing renewable energy penetration were determined in this article for six islands of different geographies, sizes and contexts, utilizing photovoltaic energy, wind energy, pumped hydro storage and battery storage. The results of the optimizations showed strong reasoning for islands to invest in renewable energy technologies (particularly wind energy), as compared to conventional power generation. Levelized cost of systems for electricity generation decrease considerably with increasing renewable energy penetrations, to an optimal point in the range of 40–80% penetration. Furthermore, renewable electricity integration in the order of 60–90% could still be achieved with no added cost from the initial situation. Cost increases after these optimal points are attributed to the growing inclusion of storage, required to meet the higher renewable energy shares. However, with battery costs forecast to fall in the coming years, and a cost reduction of 50–70% already causing lithium-ion batteries to overtake pumped hydro as a cost-favorable storage option in this model, there is a real case for islands to begin their transition in a staged process; first installing wind and PV generation, and then - as storage costs decrease and their renewable energy capacities increase - investing in storage options.

Highlights

The proliferation of sustainable energy technologies is growing at a steady rate [1], as society embarks on the colossal, yet imperative process of undertaking a paradigm shift, from default dependence on fossil fuels, to new systems, built on renewable resources
With battery costs forecast to fall in the coming years, and a cost reduction of 50–70% already causing lithium-ion batteries to overtake pumped hydro as a cost-favorable storage option in this model, there is a real case for islands to begin their transition in a staged process; first installing wind and PV generation, and - as storage costs decrease and their renewable energy capacities increase investing in storage options
Beyond the minimum Levelized Cost of System (LCOS) points, the ability for PV and wind to meet higher shares of the electricity demand directly is strained, and the requirement for storage becomes essential - associated with the increasing LCOS

Summary

Introduction

The proliferation of sustainable energy technologies is growing at a steady rate [1], as society embarks on the colossal, yet imperative process of undertaking a paradigm shift, from default dependence on fossil fuels, to new systems, built on renewable resources. The smaller scale of electricity production and the volume and logistics of supply on islands, results in very high comparative electricity costs. These high costs, coupled with oil price volatility, desire for energy security, and the relatively higher vulnerability of islands to the impacts of climate change, build a strong rationale for islands to shift towards sustainable energy systems

Results

Discussion

Conclusion