Cost-effectiveness of single-visit cervical cancer screening in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: a model-based analysis accounting for the HIV epidemic.

Abstract

Women living with human immunodeficiency virus (WLHIV) face elevated risks of human papillomavirus (HPV) acquisition and cervical cancer (CC). Coverage of CC screening and treatment remains low in low-and-middle-income settings, reflecting resource challenges and loss to follow-up with current strategies. We estimated the health and economic impact of alternative scalable CC screening strategies in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, a region with high burden of CC and HIV. We parameterized a dynamic compartmental model of HPV and HIV transmission and CC natural history to KwaZulu-Natal. Over 100 years, we simulated the status quo of a multi-visit screening and treatment strategy with cytology and colposcopy triage (South African standard of care) and six single-visit comparator scenarios with varying: 1) screening strategy (HPV DNA testing alone, with genotyping, or with automated visual evaluation triage, a new high-performance technology), 2) screening frequency (once-per-lifetime for all women, or repeated every 5 years for WLHIV and twice for women without HIV), and 3) loss to follow-up for treatment. Using the Ministry of Health perspective, we estimated costs associated with HPV vaccination, screening, and pre-cancer, CC, and HIV treatment. We quantified CC cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted for each scenario. We discounted costs (2022 US dollars) and outcomes at 3% annually and calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). We projected 69,294 new CC cases and 43,950 CC-related deaths in the status quo scenario. HPV DNA testing achieved the greatest improvement in health outcomes, averting 9.4% of cases and 9.0% of deaths with one-time screening and 37.1% and 35.1%, respectively, with repeat screening. Compared to the cost of the status quo ($12.79 billion), repeat screening using HPV DNA genotyping had the greatest increase in costs. Repeat screening with HPV DNA testing was the most effective strategy below the willingness to pay threshold (ICER: $3,194/DALY averted). One-time screening with HPV DNA testing was also an efficient strategy (ICER: $1,398/DALY averted). Repeat single-visit screening with HPV DNA testing was the optimal strategy simulated. Single-visit strategies with increased frequency for WLHIV may be cost-effective in KwaZulu-Natal and similar settings with high HIV and HPV prevalence.