Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of the Optimal Control Strategies for Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis Transmission in Ethiopia

Abstract

Despite the recent progress of global control efforts, tuberculosis (TB) remains a significant public health threat worldwide, especially in developing countries, including Ethiopia. Furthermore, the emergence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) has further complicated the situation. This study aims at identifying the most effective strategies for combating MDR-TB in Ethiopia. We first present a compartmental model of MDR-TB transmission dynamics in Ethiopia. The model is shown to have positive solutions, and the stability of the equilibrium points is analyzed. Then, we extend the model by incorporating time-dependent control variables. These control variables are vaccination, distancing, and treatment for DS-TB and MDR-TB. Finally, the optimality system is numerically simulated by considering different combinations of the strategies, and their cost effectiveness is analysed. Our finding shows that, among single control strategies, the successful treatment of drug-susceptible tuberculosis (DS-TB) is the most effective control factor for eliminating MDR-TB transmission in Ethiopia. Furthermore, within the six dual control strategies, the combination of distancing and successful treatment of DS-TB is less costly and more effective than other strategies. Finally, out of the triple control strategies, the combination of distancing, successful treatment for DS-TB, and treatment for MDR-TB is the most efficient strategy for curbing the MDR-TB disease in Ethiopia. Thus, to reduce MDR-TB efficiently, it is recommended that authorities focus on treating MDR-TB, effective treatment of DS-TB, and promoting social distancing through public health education and awareness programs.