Abstract
This paper analyses the cost competitiveness of different electrified propulsion technologies for the German auto market in 2020. Several types of hybrid electric vehicles including parallel hybrids (with and without external charging) and a serial range extended electric vehicle are compared to a conventional car with SI engine, a full battery electric vehicle and a hydrogen powered fuel cell vehicle. Special focus lies on the maintenance and repair cost and the expected resale value of alternative vehicles, which have been integrated within one extensive total cost of ownership model. The assessment shows that the current TCO gaps for alternative drivetrains will decrease significantly by 2020 mainly driven by the reduction in production cost. Furthermore hybrid electric vehicles will profit from lower maintenance and repair cost and a higher expected resale value compared to conventional cars. Therefore, hybrid electric vehicles will be an attractive option in particular for users with high annual mileages, who can benefit from the low operating cost of EVs in combination with unlimited driving range. The analysis concludes that there will not be one dominant powertrain design in the midterm future. Hence, automakers have to manage a wide portfolio of competing drivetrain architectures, which will increase the risk and complexity of strategic decisions.
Highlights
Driven by ambitious CO2 reduction targets set by politics and the growing awareness for fuel economy by the customer, automotive OEMs are increasingly required to develop energy efficient vehicles
This comparison shows that the purchase price rises with an increasing share of electrification which is mainly driven by the expensive traction battery accounting for one third of total production cost of a battery electric vehicles (BEVs)
For full battery electric vehicle a total cost of ownership (TCO) gap of EUR 4,000 remains after consideration of resale value and operating cost
Summary
Driven by ambitious CO2 reduction targets set by politics and the growing awareness for fuel economy by the customer, automotive OEMs are increasingly required to develop energy efficient vehicles. In this context electrification of the automotive powertrain is potentially a highly effective lever to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and energy usage of passenger cars. A variety of propulsion concepts including hybrids (HEV), plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), extended range electric vehicles (EREVs) battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) are examined. In this paper plug-in versions of HEVs with two levels of electric drive power – PHEVs (gridconnected HEVs) and EREVs – are examined. By combining all-electric driving capability at limited top speeds for limited distances with unrestricted
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