CORRELATION AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF TOURISTS SERVED BY TOURISM ENTITIES IN UKRAINE: REGIONAL DIFFERENCES

Abstract

Tourism is an important component of many countries, as the tourism sector works closely with other industries, attracting investment resources, strengthening the revenue side of the budget, improving the country's balance of payments, and promoting sustainable economic growth and welfare. The key indicator of the development of tourism is tourist flows that affect the spatial differences in the functioning of destinations and cause territorial socio-economic unevenness. The most significant determinants affecting the number of tourists serviced can be identified using correlation and regression analysis. The article analyzes the current state of the market of tourist services in Ukraine. The financial and economic crisis, which has intensified in recent years, the events related to the annexation of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the operation of the Joint Forces in the territory of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, led to a decrease in the inbound tourist flow in Ukraine. The factors that influence the development of the tourism market of Ukraine are studied. Using the correlation-regression analysis, a model of cause and effect relationships between the population of the region, its real incomes, the number of tourist enterprises and the resulting feature – the number of tourists served, have been formed. Econometric models indicate that number of tourist enterprises positively affects the resulting feature in 95.8% of the regions; the income per capita contributes to an increase in the number of tourists served in 91.7% of the regions; and the number of population affects an increase in the number of tourists in 66.7% of the regions. Thus, the hypothesis of factor variables has been confirmed in most regions of Ukraine. The study of the number of tourists serviced by enterprises of tourist industry in the regional context enables us to analyze the efficiency of their activities and to determine the parameters of the regions with greater mobility of the population, as well as to identify the regions that generate tourist flows. The practical importance of constructing econometric models lies in the possibility of using them to predict the development of the tourism industry in Ukraine.