Correction to 'Bayesian inference reveals positive but subtle effects of experimental fishery closures on marine predator demographics'.

Richard B Sherley,Kate J Campbell,Stephen C Votier,Cat Horswill,Peter J Barham,Florian Weller,Lorien Pichegru,Alistair Mcinnes,Jennifer Grigg,Henning Winker,Antje Steinfurth,Taryn L Morris,Barbara J Barham,Robert J M Crawford

doi:10.1098/rspb.2021.2129

Abstract

Correction to 'Bayesian inference reveals positive but subtle effects of experimental fishery closures on marine predator demographics'.

Highlights

It has recently come to our attention that we made a coding error while implementing the hierarchical mixed-models describing chick condition and chick survival (equations (2.1) and (2.2), respectively) in ‘Bayesian inference reveals positive but subtle effects of experimental fishery closures on marine predator demographics’ [1]
Our error, which pertained to the specification of the structure of the priors for the nested random effects, influenced the derived parameter estimates of the mean chick condition or chick survival during closed and open years more than the estimates for the regression coefficients representing the island effect (–0.8 to 9%), closure effect (4–8%) or their interaction (6–8%)
Gelman [3] recommends using a half-Cauchy distribution with scale = 25 as a vague prior for the variance terms associated with the hierarchical random effects

Summary

Introduction

It has recently come to our attention that we made a coding error while implementing the hierarchical mixed-models describing chick condition and chick survival (equations (2.1) and (2.2), respectively) in ‘Bayesian inference reveals positive but subtle effects of experimental fishery closures on marine predator demographics’ [1]. We present corrected results (table 1 and figure 1) based on correctly specified models in JAGS [2] applied to the datasets used in our original analysis.

Results

Conclusion