Corporate income tax gap estimation in the context of development of fiscal space

Abstract

The article is devoted to the analysis of the corporate income tax gap as one of the indicators that characterizes the tax revenues that a country can accumulate accounting for its economic potential. The author summarizes the main theoretical views on the causes of the tax gap and investigates existing methodological approaches to assess the tax gap on corporate income tax in OECD countries. The article estimates the income tax gap under the OECD Revenue Administration - Gap Analysis Program, which is based on determining potential tax revenues by adjusting the aggregate indicators of the system of national accounts (gross output, mixed income), which, according to the analysis, averaged at 1.4% GDP in the period 2017-2019, which shows a potential for the development of the fiscal space of Ukraine. Upon analysis of the distribution of the tax gap between institutional sectors of the economy, the largest gap in income tax was found in the sector of foreign corporations whose potential tax revenues were estimated as tripled relative to the declared tax revenues accrued in the Consolidated Budget of Ukraine in 2018. The author conducted a comprehensive analysis of the effectiveness of corporate income tax in Ukraine on the basis of tax efforts and budget efficiency ratios, which revealed significant weaknesses in comparison with similar indicators in other countries. The main measures aimed at eliminating tax gaps in OECD countries are summed up and recommendations are made for Ukraine.